I had an epiphany the other day. It goes something like this:

1) Marketing is about managing perception. That wasn't the epiphany, just a sort of set up. It's something I know to be true because I've been working in advertising and marketing and branding for 20 years.

2) The perceived value of a company is determined by perception. This isn't the epiphany, either. Although it is something of a realization. What it means is that people will buy or sell a stock based not on what a company is worth, but on what they believe the company will be worth.

I've learned this lesson repeatedly, but most profoundly when I decided--back in 2000--that you don't bet against Bill Gates. I bought stock in Microsoft at something like $58 a share. Today it's worth less than half of that. Beacause...

Because the important thing isn't how smart Bill Gates is, it's how smart people think Bill Gates is. A very important distinction. In 2000, people thought the future for Microsoft was rosier than people do today.

Perception.

Or, to put it another way, the perception of the future for Microsoft was better in 2000 than it is now.

I know, it's not just marketing. There are fundamentals. But the fundamentals only contribute to the perception. This is why a company like Ford can have a price/earnings ratio of 8.13 while a company like Google can have one of 110.79. What that says is that people think Google has more than a ten times better chance of doubling in value in two years than Ford.

Here comes the epiphany. If marketing is about managing perception and the stock market is about reflecting perception, then if anybody should be able to pick a winning stock, it's me.

So I'm pulling the trigger.

I'm opening an account at a brokerage, putting $50,000 into it, and buying and selling stocks in companies based on what I know about marketing.

This blog is here to do two things. First, to keep me honest. It's easy to be revisionist, but if I articulate my thoughts as they come to me, I'll be able to track whether I'm as smart as I think I am. (I'm really proud of my investment in Apple, which is worth eight times what I paid for it, but I tend to forget how tough it was to write the check.)

Second, I'd like to hear what other people think about what I think. I know what I know, but what I don't know is what I don't know. So maybe you could tell me.