Tuesday, August 02, 2005

I just got back from Turkey and you know what I learned?

I learned how incredibly weak the US dollar is.

Turkey is supposed to be this amazing bargain. Well it's not. We had lunch under a bridge for $60. The cheapest hotel was $65 a night. The prices in the guidebooks we'd bought (brand new, just before we left) were off by almost exactly 100%.

The thing is, there were other tourists. Mostly from Germany, Holland, England, and various Islamic countries. And even though we never had a hard time finding hotel rooms or getting into a restaurant to eat, it's not as if nobody was spending. We stayed in one area that was mobbed with people--mostly Turkish--many of whom carried shopping bags and seemed to have to problem springing for a $7 latte at Starbucks. (Yes, they have Starbucks in Turkey. We'll get to them some other time.)

So while Americans might look at Turkey as expensive, there's an obvious inverse: To people in Turkey, America has become a bargain. I met one Turkish guy who was blown away that he could spend an entire weekend in Las Vegas for a paltry $300.

Of course, a bargain is only a bargain if it's on something that you want. So how do the Turks feel about America?

Maybe it's just me, but I didn't pick up on any anti-American sentiment.

Okay, that's not quite true. One hotel owner clearly didn't like us--probably because we were from the States. And I had an interesting discussion with a bartender who told me why Turkey has a better human rights record than the US. But disregarding those two experiences, we felt completely welcome. Everybody seemed to know somebody in the States. And many people were saving up to visit or move there.

I know what you're thinking. You're thinking, okay, so what does this have to do with investing?

Well, I'll tell you.

Harley-Davidson.

I already like Harley-Davidson from an investing point of view because of its business model: They have an incredibly strong brand which is bought by people who like to think of themselves as outsiders, the product is priced at a premium, and (this is the huge bonus) every time they sell a motorcycle, they can expect to sell a massive amount of accessories to go along with it.

If this sounds familiar, it's because this is exactly the business model that Apple Computer uses. But there's a difference.

The difference is that Harley is in a position to take advantage of two economic factors that are generally perceived as negative: 1) that gas prices continue to rise and 2) that American Baby Boomers are facing impending retirement without the resources to do so the way they'd hoped.

The gas prices advantage is obvious. The Baby Boomer thing deserves a little explanation.

Let's say you're 60. You want to retire. But the economy sucks and in spite of Alan Greenspan's misguided belief that there hasn't been inflation in 20 years, you know that you're paying five times as much for everything that you used to, from movie tickets to bananas. You're not likely to move into that estate on the golf course after all.

How do you feel about that? I'm going to guess pretty ripped off. You've worked really hard and you thought you had this coming. Retirement is like vacation. You get to be free. Finally.

Well, if you can't have the house on the golf course, how can you afford the freedom you deserve after 40 years in the machine? You can buy a motorcycle. And not just any motorcycle, but one that labels you as a rebel. A free-thinker. Someone who flaunts authority.

This, of course, is why I first bought Harley stock six months ago. But now that I understand the incredible weakness of the dollar, I see that while Harleys are expensive to you and me, to people in Turkey they're increasingly affordable.

Which brings me back around to the brand positioning. Talk about perfect. A purely American product that is anti-establishment in its very heritage. In other words, whether you like the US or not, buying a Harley is an unassailable proposision. If you love America, how can you not love Harley? And if you harbor anti-American sentiments, you can buy Harley as an act of protest.

All Harley has to do is articulate this position. And having seen what they've done with their advertising for the past 15 years or so, I have no doubt that they will.

Today, I bought 283 shares of HDI at $52.8668 per share.

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