Thursday, January 12, 2006

Apple’s Grand Strategy.

I feel so smart. I’ve figured out what Apple is up to.

First, a little background. Apple just introduced new Macintosh computers running on Intel chips. This isn’t new news, really, because Apple made the announcement six months ago.

And six months ago, it occurred to me that an Apple computer on an Intel chip would be able to run Windows as well as the Mac OS, which would make it a really appealing box for high-end users—the people Dell have decided to target with their upscale PC.

Brilliant. But not all.

You see, Apple isn’t making a big deal about the ability to run Windows on the new Intel-based Macs. And at first blush, that seems counterintuitive. But now I get it.

Sure, the new Macs can run Windows. But that’s not the future. If you want to see the future, look at the Mac OS. Particularly the Widgets.

For those of you who don’t know what Widgets are, they’re mini programs that run on the desktop, each one dedicated to a single discrete task. That task is associated with the internet.

And that’s where the genius is.

Right now, Widgets are mostly gimmicks. You can tell the weather in St. Louis without opening your browser. Whoopee.

Only yeah, whoopee.

In the current structure, your operating system is the interface between you and your programs. One of those programs is your browser, which serves as an interface to the internet. And when you start your browswer, you go to a portal, which compresses all the vast stuff in the internet into a place for you to start accessing it.

An interface that takes you to an interface that takes you to an interface.

Until Widgets.

A Widget is pre-browser. In other words, it functions as the interface between you and the internet directly, without having to go through the browser.

In one move, Apple has been able to eviscerate both the browser and the portal. At least in theory.

But here’s where it gets stunningly visionary: If the Widgets will run on an Intel-based machine, is there any reason they can’t run on a PC?

Suddenly, Apple doesn’t need to replace the Windows OS. All it needs to do is supplement it. It’s not a threat if it’s added functionality, after all. Only it is. Because the internet is where the revenue is going to come from. If Apple can port the Widget structure to PCs, Apple will become not only the arbiter of what’s worthy on the internet, but also the company with access to all those eyeballs.

An Intel-powered Mac makes that not only possible, but inevitable.

The future of the Widget, then, is that it becomes the interface between you and both what’s on the computer and what’s on the internet, with no real distinction drawn—at least as far as the user is concerned. Furthermore, the Widget as a concept is small enough, discrete enough, and conceptually simple enough to be applied far beyond computers. Adding a Widget to a cell phone makes a lot more sense than adding a browser. In fact, it finally makes sense to conceive of that connectivity the prognosticators have been talking about for years.

It used to seem silly to think of connecting your fridge to the internet, because you’re throwing an inordinate amount of horsepower at something so totally singular. But the Widget architecture makes that make sense. Now you don’t need an entire browser to see if you need to grab more milk on the way home from the office. All you need is a single, simple Widget.

And it goes the other way as well. It never made sense that people would browse the internet from the fridge. But a wee Widget you can add to the fridge would make it make sense to find the store that sells your favorite brand of milk at the lowest price when you’re running low.

Am I right about this? Imagine a clock/radio that downloads the number 1 hip-hop song to wake you up with each morning (iTunes). Or a storytelling machine that puts your kid to sleep each night with a story told by their favorite cartoon character (Pixar, Disney). I believe Mr. Jobs figured this all out a long time ago. And I believe I've finally figured out just how smart Mr. Jobs is.

I wish I’d thought of this a week ago. Apple stock has gone up 12% in the past week.

That’s okay. As soon as Sony or somebody comes out with an MP3 player that looks half decent, everybody will dump their Apple stock because the run must inevitably be over. That's when it goes on sale. And that's when I’m backing up the truck.

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